Response to Troika’s Mission 1.5 Roadmap Event: A Worrying Case of Cognitive Dissonance
While it is positive to see calls for parties to match the urgency of the climate crisis and act together to deliver NDCs that keep 1.5°C in reach, the Troika feigns to ignore a simple reality: it will not be possible without an immediate end to fossil fuel expansion.
In response to the Troika (UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil) high level event on the Roadmap to Mission 1.5, Romain Ioualalen, Oil Change International Global Policy Manager, said:
“Today we witnessed a worrying case of cognitive dissonance, with COP presidencies pledging to deliver national climate plans (NDCs) in line with science, while ignoring that 1.5°C-aligned climate plans mean no new fossil fuels. At a time of grave climate urgency, the COP Troika is failing to deliver the leadership and clarity needed to raise climate ambition. While it is positive to see calls for parties to match the urgency of the climate crisis and act together to deliver NDCs that keep 1.5°C in reach, the Troika feigns to ignore a simple reality: it will not be possible without an immediate end to fossil fuel expansion.
“Propping the door open for new fossil fuel projects while touting an ambition to submit national climate plans in line with the latest science sets a dangerous precedent for other nations, undermining global efforts to address climate change.
“The Troika, all ranking in the top largest oil and gas producing countries in the world, are also on track to collectively increase their oil and gas production by one third by 2035 [1]. The IEA’s 1.5°C scenario calls for a 43% reduction in oil and gas production by 2035 globally. While the majority of fossil fuel expansion is happening in Global North countries that have the responsibility to phase out the fastest and provide finance on fair terms, Troika countries shouldn’t get a free pass for their dangerous fossil fuel expansion plans.
“As both major fossil fuel producers and guardians of the 1.5°C temperature limit, the Troika should lead a global conversation on how producers can use their NDCs to disentangle their economies from fossil fuels, instead of doubling down on expansion. The Troika can’t have it both ways. It’s time to choose: fossil fuel expansion or a livable future. The world is watching.”
Note to the editor:
- [1] Oil Change International analysis of data from Rystad Energy. The data shows Troika countries are on track to increase their combined oil and gas production by 33% by 2035, compared to 2023 levels. By country, the projected increase in production to 2035 is 38% for Brazil, 37% for the UAE, and 4% for Azerbaijan.