Norwegian Election Manifesto Analysis: How the parties shape up on oil and gas phase-out policies

As Norway heads into its parliamentary election on September 8th 2025, it is more urgent than ever that the next government adopts a clear, science-aligned plan to phase out fossil fuel production in a rapid, just, and orderly manner. Norway continues to be among the world’s top exporters of oil and gas — a position that is incompatible with its international climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.

In the lead-up to the election, we analysed the manifestos of all major political parties represented in Parliament to evaluate how their proposed oil and gas policies would shift Norway’s trajectory. Using the same benchmark framework as in Troubled Waters (our 2024 report that assessed oil and gas policies in North Sea countries against five science-based criteria for a Paris-aligned phase-out) we assessed whether parties are willing to commit to stopping new licensing and saying no to new production, if they support the establishment of a Paris-aligned date to end oil and gas production and which Just Transition policies they are willing to support and implement. 

In March 2024’s Troubled Waters, Norway ranked worst overall, with the largest volume of potential CO₂ emissions from undeveloped, licensed oil and gas fields. This underscores the stark gap between Norway’s climate rhetoric and its ongoing expansion of fossil fuel production.

Summary

There are several parties that have manifestos and policies aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, on both sides of the aisle. However, the biggest parties, namely the Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet), the Conservative Party (Høyre) and the Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet), continue to support licensing rounds and new production, and frame oil and gas as central to economic security — a position at odds with the urgency of climate science. 

As in other high-income, fossil fuel-producing countries, the dominance of industry narratives and the influence of the petroleum sector remain major barriers to progress. But this election offers voters and policymakers an opportunity to shift course. A science-based, equitable transition away from oil and gas is not only necessary for global climate goals — it is possible, if political will can overcome vested interests.

A more detailed breakdown of the extent to which different parties are Paris-aligned or not can be found below:

The Labour Party

(Average polling in July: 27.7 %)

The Labour Party’s platform walks a tightrope between climate commitments and support for the petroleum sector, but ultimately tends to end up in the corner of the oil and gas industry. While the party has softened its language on exploration in new and previously unopened areas, it still supports annual licensing rounds and new production. In their current position in government, they have made no attempts to halt new production. Labour mentions green investment broadly (e.g. for renewables and skills), but the manifesto lacks a detailed just transition framework, and the party has been against implementing a plan for Norway’s transition away from oil and gas. 

End new licensing: Unaligned

Stop approving new development: Grossly Unaligned

Paris-aligned end date: Grossly Unaligned

Just transition policies: Partially Aligned 

The Conservative Party

(Average polling in July: 14.8 %)

The Conservative Party continues to support expansive fossil fuel production through new licensing, exploration, and  production. The party’s manifesto frames oil and gas as essential for energy security, employment and state income, with little recognition of the need to reduce production in line with global carbon budgets. 

Their platform would move the country further away from a just and rapid transition.

End new licensing: Grossly Unaligned

Stop approving new development: Grossly Unaligned

Paris-aligned end date: Grossly Unaligned

Just transition policies: Unaligned

The Progress Party

(Average polling in July: 21,5 %)

The Progress Party advocates for expanding oil and gas production, cutting taxes on oil companies, opening new areas for exploration, and actively rolling back environmental regulations. Their manifesto does not mention climate change in any meaningful way in relation to fossil fuel policy, and it dismisses both international climate obligations and the need for a just transition.

If implemented, the Progress Party’s programme would not only block progress, but actively reverse existing climate measures. It represents a fundamental threat to both Norway’s international credibility and its climate responsibility.

The Progress Party has surpassed the Conservative party to become the largest party on the right, partly through vocal opposition to government spending on various climate-related industrial initiatives.

End new licensing: Grossly Unaligned

Stop approving new development: Grossly Unaligned

Paris-aligned end date: Grossly Unaligned

Just transition policies: Grossly Unaligned

The Socialist Left Party

(Average polling in July: 8.2 %)

The Socialist Left Party calls for an end to new licensing rounds and oil exploration, and wants to phase out oil and gas production in Norway. Crucially, the Socialist Left Party couples these policies with detailed plans for a just transition, including major public investment in renewable energy, green industry and job creation. The party also emphasises democratic control over the transition and strong social protections for affected workers and communities. 

The party’s programme provides a solid basis for a fossil fuel phase-out that is socially fair and in line with the Paris Agreement. The party will have a big opportunity to affect Norwegian policy if the election results in a Labour-led coalition government, which the Socialist Left Party will support and could join, depending on negotiations over a new coalition.

End new licensing: Aligned

Stop approving new development: Aligned

Paris-aligned end date: Aligned

Just transition policies: Aligned

The Centre Party

(Average polling in July: 6.3 %)

The Center Party, which was the junior partner in a Labour-led coalition until earlier this year, strongly supports continued exploration and production, including in controversial and sensitive areas like the Barents Sea. The manifesto frames oil and gas as essential for rural development and national sovereignty, with limited attention to climate science or international obligations. 

The Centre Party is also sceptical of placing climate-related restrictions on licensing rounds and the scaling back of oil infrastructure. It does support certain rural job creation measures and decentralised energy investments, but these are not tied to a fossil fuel transition strategy.

The Centre Party is part of the ‘red-green’ bloc of parties that would support a Labour-led government. A victory for the red-green bloc would see negotiations in which the Centre Party will likely clash with the Socialist Left Party over oil policy, as they did after the last election, when disagreements about climate and oil policies led the Socialist Left Party to leave coalition negotiations.

End new licensing: Unaligned

Stop approving new development: Grossly Unaligned

Paris-aligned end date: Grossly Unaligned

Just transition policies: Unaligned

The Red Party

(Average polling in July: 5.9 %)

The Red Party takes a clear and consistent stance against continued oil and gas expansion. Their manifesto calls for an immediate stop to new licensing rounds and explicitly opposes the development of new fossil projects, even in already licensed areas. They support a managed, state-led phaseout in line with the Paris Agreement. 

Crucially, the Red Party matches its supply-side policies with strong just transition measures, including public investment in green jobs and retraining programmes. 

The party’s programme provides a solid basis for a fossil fuel phase-out that is socially fair and in line with the Paris Agreement. 

The Red Party would support a Labour-led ‘red-green’ government, but is highly unlikely to be invited to join as a formal coalition partner.

End new licensing: Aligned

Stop approving new development: Aligned

Paris-aligned end date: Aligned

Just transition policies: Aligned

The Liberal Party

(Average polling in July: 4.7 %)

The Liberal Party emphasizes a balanced transition away from fossil fuels, aiming to reduce Norway’s dependence on oil and gas while accelerating investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency. The Liberal Party calls for a stop to all new exploration for oil and gas, end new licenses, and develop a plan for the phase-out of Norway’s petroleum industry.

The Liberal Party supports international climate leadership, stronger environmental regulations, and measures for just transition, but lacks detail on implementation and funding levels for just transition policies. 

The Liberal Party will have a big opportunity to affect Norwegian policy if they enter a Conservative-led coalition government, but is likely to clash with the Progress Party, including on environmental policy, in the event of negotiations over a new government if the right wins the election.

End new licensing: Aligned

Stop approving new development: Aligned

Paris-aligned end date: Aligned

Just transition policies: Close to Aligned

The Green Party

(Average polling in July: 3.5 %)

The Green Party is the only party committed to stopping all new exploration for oil and gas, ending new licenses, and developing a plan for the phase-out of Norway’s petroleum industry. The party also calls for Norway to join the Beyond Oil & Gas Alliance (BOGA) and lays out a comprehensive vision for climate justice — including job guarantees, massive investment in clean energy, and meaningful support for the Global South. 

The party’s programme provides a solid basis for a fossil fuel phase-out that is socially fair and in line with the Paris Agreement. 

The Greens pledged to support and are open to joining a Labour-led coalition to stop a Progress Party-led right-wing government. However, to have the biggest chance of blocking a right-wing victory, and the greatest possible influence on Norwegian policy, the party would need to get over the electoral threshold of 4% of the vote (which entitles parties to a larger group of MPs).

End new licensing: Aligned

Stop approving new development: Aligned

Paris-aligned end date: Aligned

Just transition policies: Aligned

The Christian Democratic Party

(Average polling in July: 3.2 %)

The Christian Democratic party emphasises stewardship and long-term sustainability but continues to support petroleum activity within “responsible” limits — a framing that lacks clarity in the context of science-based carbon budgets.The party supports future licensing rounds, but wants them to be limited to existing production. 

To move toward alignment, the Christian Democratic Party would need to shift from a reactive to a proactive climate posture, embracing a clear exit strategy from oil and gas and advocating for greater international responsibility.

The Christian Democrats are part of the right-wing bloc of parties, but would need to get over 4 per cent (which would entitle them to a larger group of MPs) in order to have a big impact on climate and energy policy.

End new licensing: Partially Aligned

Stop approving new development: Unaligned

Paris-aligned end date: Partially Aligned

Just transition policies: Partially Aligned