Oil Change International COP30 Media Advisory – 12 November

12 November, Belém, Brazil –  Today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the 2025 edition of its flagship report, the World Energy Outlook (WEO). The report shows that the projected growth rate in renewable energy production over the next decade outpaces every other major energy source, signalling the end of the fossil fuel era. 

In its business-as-usual scenario, the IEA finds that oil and coal demand are still on track to peak by 2030 in its business-as-usual scenario (STEPS), driven by the unstoppable growth of renewable energy and electrification – but this still falls far short of what is needed to avoid breaching the 1.5ºC survival limit.

While Oil Change International’s Global Industry team lead David Tong says “no single country can stop the energy transition”, the question energy and policy experts are asking at COP30 is whether the inevitable transition will be fast enough, or fair enough as countries negotiate implementing their COP28 commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. 

This media advisory outlines: 

• Today’s key events:
  • Press: Oil Change International response to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2025
  • Side events: 
    • 12:00 – 12:50 ICJ Advisory Opinion: What’s next for ratcheting up ambition?, Location – Moana Pacific Pavilion
    • 14:30 – 15:30 From Planning to Action: NDC Implementation to Phase Out Fossil Fuels, WWF Panda Pavilion, event webcast 
    • 15:00 – 16:00 Challenges for the Implementation of Paragraph 28 of the GST: Initiatives for Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels, Location – Blue Zone, Cumaru Room, Brazil Pavilion, hosted by the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MMA), Brazil
    • 18:30 – 21:00 Global Energy Embargo for a Free Palestine, Location – Embassy of the Peoples: Oil worker trade union officials and movement leaders from Brazil, South Africa, Colombia, Palestine and more will host a public panel tomorrow on states’ moral and legal obligation to end fossil fuel exports to Israel in line with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and UN Commission findings that Israel’s actions are unlawful.
  • Actions: 
    • 9:00 – 12:00 Opening of the People’s Summit Boat Parade, Boats leave from the Federal University of Pará and head to Belém Harbor

• Yesterday’s key events in case you missed them: 
  • Communities Confront U.S. Governors at COP30 Over Fossil Fuel Expansion and False Climate Solutions: 
    • At COP30, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and California Governor Gavin Newsom took the stage at the “America Is All In” Pavilion to highlight state-level climate leadership. But their records tell another story: both have expanded fossil fuel extraction and embraced dangerous false solutions like carbon capture and hydrogen. Frontline activists confronted them in Belém, calling out hypocrisy and demanding real climate action.
• Look out for tomorrow November 13, 2025:
  Oil Change International, Palestinian Institute for Climate Strategy, Global Energy Embargo for Palestine, and Trade Unions for Energy Democracy NOW will hold a press conference at COP30 to expose how the global energy system is directly fueling war, occupation, and genocide. This press conference will unveil Behind the Barrel: Updated Origins of Israel’s Fuel Supply, a report tracing the countries and corporations behind over 21 million tonnes of fuel sent to Israel during its assault on Gaza.
  15:30 – 16:00 | Press Room 2

David Tong, Global Industry Campaign Manager at Oil Change International said:

“This year’s World Energy Outlook sets out a stark and simple choice: we can protect people and communities by safeguarding 1.5ºC, settle for a disastrous business-as-usual 2.5ºC, or choose to backslide into a nightmare future of much higher warming. Holding warming to 1.5ºC means no further delay, no new fossil fuels, and public planning and funding to guarantee a just energy transition. Yet the U.S. is trying to put this path – the only route to survival – beyond reach by reviving an outdated, fossil-fuelled scenario that assumes governments abandon their efforts and progress stalls. 

“Crucially though, the IEA has also confirmed that no single country can stop the energy transition, with oil and coal demand to peak by 2030 in its business-as-usual scenario, and with gas to follow soon after. And, again, it has reconfirmed that there is no investment in new oil and gas fields for 1.5ºC. 

“But this year’s report also shows Donald Trump’s dystopian future, bringing back the old, fossil-fuel intense, high pollution Current Policies Scenario, charting an unrealistic pathway where governments drag their energy policies backwards and rates of renewable energy adoption stall, leading to high energy prices and unmitigated climate disaster. At COP30, governments must reject this nightmare fantasy, uphold a just transition, and choose a fast, fair, and funded fossil fuel phase-out.”

Spokespeople and areas of focus

At COP30, reach out to us to connect with spokespeople to cover: 

• Fair Fossil fuel phaseout: Fossil fuel phaseout roadmaps, Global North countries’ fossil fuel expansion, Nationally Determined Contributions, diplomacy and negotiations 
• Financing a just transition: Baku to Belém roadmap, NCQG, fossil fuel subsidies and finance, financial architecture reform, just transition 
• Industry and False Solutions: Industry pledges, Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter, IEA / WEO, CCS, False Solutions Subsidies, Kick Polluters Out, International Energy Agency and World Energy Outlook, 1.5ºC scenarios
• United States: Trump, U.S. Congress, U.S. finance and subsidies, false solutions and CCS, LNG, certified gas, Methane
• Africa: Resistance to oil and gas in Africa, oil and gas expansion in Africa
• Asia: Japan’s energy strategy, Japan’s gas and fossil fuel-based technologies (ammonia/hydrogen co-firing, CCS) expansion in Asia

OCI has spokespeople available on the ground at COP30 for interviews and press panels, as well as remote spokespeople available in alternative timezones for those journalists not in attendance in Belém

We will deliver daily media advisories with the most important updates from COP30 on fossil fuel phaseout, fair finance for a just transition, and expert insight on the negotiations.