Oil Change International Reaction to the International Energy Agency’s “Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates” Report

Paris, France – The International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) latest report assesses how decline rates from oil and gas fields could impact future levels of oil and gas production. 

Importantly, the report’s findings show yet again that investment in new oil and gas fields is not needed under a scenario in which the world holds global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) [1], the globally agreed limit reinforced by the International Court of Justice’s recent advisory opinion. This data illustrates the urgent need for governments to plan for and fund a rapid transition away from fossil fuel dependence and towards a clean and secure renewable energy future.

Kelly Trout, Research Director, Oil Change International, said:
“It’s unthinkable to invest in any new fossil fuel development when the majority of oil, gas, and coal in existing fields and mines must stay underground to keep warming to globally agreed limits. The IEA’s repeated finding that no new oil and gas fields are needed on the path to net-zero emissions by 2050 remains true. Countries must follow through on their internationally agreed commitment to transition away from polluting fossil fuels, and invest in a renewable energy future.”

[1] The IEA reaffirms that no new oil and gas fields are required under a 1.5°C-compatible Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario in Box 6 of the new report. Specifically:

• The findings of the IEA’s new report reinforce that existing oil and gas fields contain more supply than is compatible with 1.5°C-aligned levels of oil and gas demand.
• By 2035, oil and gas production fall by 42% and 46%, respectively, compared to 2023 levels under the 1.5°C-aligned NZE scenario (to around 55 million barrels per day of oil (mb/d) and 2250 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2035). 
• The IEA’s new report shows that production from existing and already approved oil and gas fields could exceed the NZE’s 1.5°C pathway in 2035 by more than 15% (leading to production levels of 64 mb/d of oil and 2600 bcm of gas in 2035). 
• Thus, any investment into new oil and gas fields will create more stranded assets that must be shut down early, greater degrees of climate chaos, or both.

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