Oil Change International response to the 2025 Production Gap Report

22 September 2025 – Today, research organisations released the 2025 Production Gap Report, which compares governments’ current fossil fuel production plans against pathways for a livable climate. This year’s edition shows that governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 – 120 percent more – than would be compatible with keeping global warming to 1.5°C, an increase from 110 percent since this study was last conducted in 2023. 

In response, Kelly Trout, Research Director at Oil Change International, said: 

“Governments plan to pump out more than double the fossil fuels consistent with staying below the 1.5°C survival limit – a reckless choice to lock in climate chaos when existing reserves already exceed the carbon budget.

“It is not yet too late to act. With the U.S. driving the majority of global projected oil and gas expansion over the next decade, governments must resist bowing to the Trump administration’s pro-fossil fuel agenda, and instead seize the chance to rapidly shift course. Countries can still deliver the just energy transition away from fossil fuels they promised us two years ago, with other rich Global North producers taking the lead. As world leaders prepare for climate talks in Belém, countries must champion concrete pathways to deliver a collective roadmap for equitable, differentiated fossil fuel phase-out dates, and address the systemic barriers preventing Global South countries from transitioning to renewable energy, including by mobilising real public finance on fair terms.”