In response to Trump’s Statement on the Benefits of High Oil Prices
For immediate release
As geopolitical tensions rise, Trump’s fossil fuel billionaire donors reap windfall profits while people are being killed and working people around the world face higher energy and food costs.
In response to Trump’s statement on X, “The United States is the largest oil producer in the world, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” Lorne Stockman, Oil Change International Research Director, said:
“Trump’s comment lays bare the perverse incentives central to the fossil fuel system. Instability makes oil prices soar. As geopolitical tensions rise, Trump’s fossil fuel billionaire donors reap windfall profits while people are being killed and working people around the world face higher energy and food costs.
“We saw the same playbook in 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a global cost-of-living crisis while the five largest oil companies made nearly $200 billion in profits in a single year. An analysis of the distribution of profits in 2022 among publicly listed oil and gas companies found that U.S.-based firms pocketed the largest share, and the richest Americans overwhelmingly benefitted from this windfall: 50% of U.S. firms’ profits went to the wealthiest 1% of individuals.
“The scale of the windfall could be enormous, and could translate into roughly $100 billion more in revenue for US oil producers. The EIA just released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. It raised its forecast for the 2026 average WTI (West Texas Intermediate, or the high quality crude that serves as the US benchmark for pricing) oil price by over $20 per barrel, saying, “This price forecast is highly dependent on our modeled assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and resulting outages in oil production,” meaning it could be higher if the conflict lasts longer. Our back-of-the-envelope calculation based on the United States’ roughly 14 million barrels per day of crude production alone would generate about $280 million in additional revenue every day — more than $100 billion over a year. And that’s just crude oil, before counting natural gas liquids and gas.
“This isn’t an accident; it’s how the fossil-fueled system Trump champions is designed to work. What Trump calls a financial upside is a system built to profit from chaos. Fossil fuel companies and their wealthy investors benefit from volatility and conflict, but ordinary people pay the price in lost lives, devastated communities, and financial struggle. A better future means breaking this cycle, rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels and investing in renewable, affordable energy so people can live in safer communities, breathe clean air, and build stable, thriving lives.”