COP29 Dispatch: A $300 Billion Smokescreen

Written by Matt Maiorana, Valentina Stackl, and Laurie van der Burg

COP29, the climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan concluded this past weekend with a deeply flawed agreement on climate finance that plans for fossil fuel phaseout failure and has been carefully crafted by rich countries to dodge their responsibilities to pay the climate debt they owe to the Global South. The headline $300 billion figure masks a troubling reality: adjusted for inflation, it is no meaningful increase given actual needs compared to the previous $100 billion commitment rich nations made over a decade ago. It falls far short of the trillions annually that experts say is needed.

Global North Dodging Responsibilities

This new target, which doesn’t even need to be reached for eleven years (by 2035), is even less than what wealthy nations currently spend annually on fossil fuel subsidies: $378 billion. Unlike some of the media coverage suggests, the $1.3 trillion ‘investment goal’ is not to be relied on. It’s merely an aspiration and nobody has a responsibility to deliver it – it’s the $300 billion goal that countries are expected to deliver. And even here responsibilities get murky.

This new target allows rich countries to dodge their responsibilities to pay and instead burden the Global South which is already paying for climate impacts they did not cause. Instead of being the sole actors responsible for delivering the $300 billion, as was the case with the previous $100 billion target, rich countries are merely called “to lead” in delivering the money.

An additional reason for concern is that this is not debt-free finance at a time where the Global South is facing a worst in history debt crisis. Much like the previous climate finance target, rich countries are completely free to prioritize offering loans rather than grants and mobilizing private finance. Both would push vulnerable nations further into debt. Currently, 93% of climate-vulnerable countries are either in or at risk of serious debt distress.

Despite objections from India, Bolivia, and other developing nations, Global North countries pushed through an agreement filled with loopholes.

Implications for Climate Action

Without strong public finance commitments, upcoming National Climate Plans (NDCs) due in 2025 risk failure to align with the 1.5°C survival limit. Developing countries cannot be expected to submit ambitious 2025 NDCs that phase out fossil fuels when rich nations refuse to phase-out first and fastest and provide the necessary grant-based funding to support climate action in the Global South.

As our recent briefing makes clear, we know rich countries have enough money to pay what is required to address this crisis. Global North countries have the means to mobilize well over $5 trillion a year for climate action at home and to support countries in the Global South, including by ending fossil fuel handouts, making big polluters pay, and changing unfair global financial rules. This money can buy us cleaner air, good quality jobs, affordable energy bills, and a liveable planet.

Movement Building Despite Setbacks

While COP29 is a step backward, the climate justice movement showed unprecedented unity. From trade unions to youth strikers, Indigenous defenders to frontline communities, civil society groups maintained pressure throughout the negotiations.

Here’s some of what that work looked like for us these past couple weeks:

• Press conferences: We spoke in some amazing press conferences, including with Palestinian activists on how fossil fuel companies profit from genocide (watch our video), why US expansion of LNG is so dangerous with Senator Markey (watch our video), and why public finance is essential for climate justice (read our X thread).
• Actions: As always, people power was strong at COP29. Check out this action with activists protecting the Niger Delta, activists from across Asia fighting false solutions and dangerous distractions, and the many actions calling for rich countries to Pay Up and Phase Out! We also crashed the meetings of fossil fuel lobbyists to tell them they are not welcome here.
• Research: We released new research on how UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil undermine climate leadership with massive fossil fuel plans, how rich countries have the means to mobilize well over $5 trillion a year for climate action, and why we cannot rely on the private sector to finance the energy transition.
• Media attention: We helped tell the story of this COP, with hundreds of media hits including the New York Times on the shadow Trump cast at COP, the BBC and Financial Times on Azerbaijan, United Arab Emirates and Brazil plans for major expansions in fossil fuels, the Guardian (a few times!) on fossil fuel lobbyists and Biden, and an important story on climate finance in the Associated Press that was syndicated around the world.
• Potential win? During COP we also pushed the Biden Administration to score a $41 billion Trump-proof win for climate action with the OECD – that we need to land before the end of this year. (read our op-ed here)

You can also read a great X thread by Laurie, our Public Finance Team co-lead, covering the end of COP.

Looking Ahead

While COP29’s outcome is disappointing, the COP process is still worth engaging in. It’s one of few multilateral spaces where smaller nations have a voice. Last year’s commitment to transition away from fossil fuels also proves meaningful progress is possible. The challenge now is turning these commitments into action, despite rich nations’ resistance to providing adequate support. We also need reform, like kicking out the thousands of fossil fuel lobbyists who descend on these conferences to block progress and cut deals.

The path to COP30 in Belém is narrow but crucial. Between now and then, wealthy nations must confront their inadequate commitments and find concrete ways to deliver real climate finance – not loans or empty promises. This could start with rich countries repairing the damage done at COP29 by committing real, grants-based climate finance in support of a fossil fuel phaseout at Finance in Common in South Africa end of February 2025. The world will be watching to see if they will step up or continue pushing us all closer to the brink.

This isn’t just about numbers on paper. It’s about survival for millions of people already facing climate catastrophe. The question is: will rich nations look in the mirror and course-correct before Belém, or will they continue setting us up for failure? We need a world where everybody can not only survive, but thrive.