BAAJA Proponents’ Own Modeling Illuminates Bill’s Failures
For immediate release
Rhodium Group released long-awaited modeling of the climate impacts of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA) on Monday. Senators sponsoring the bill touted a preliminary, unpublished version of this analysis.
While proponents present the bill as a win for climate and renewable energy, even their own model shows BAAJA will accelerate fossil fuel development and, at best, lead to minimal reductions in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, this bill proposes unprecedented rollbacks to bedrock environmental laws, Tribal consultation, State authority, and legal recourse communities have to hold polluters accountable.
A day after Rhodium’s modeling was released, the results of the midterm elections shifted the political landscape, giving Democrats a mandate to rein in the data center developers and corporate polluters who would benefit most from BAAJA.
Factsheet toplines:
- Rhodium’s modeling fails to estimate emissions from the effects of “project certainty,” which hamstrings future administrations from regulating fossil fuels, along with other provisions that support fossil fuel buildout.
- At best, the model shows cumulative greenhouse gas emissions reductions from 2027-2040 of only 2.4% under BAAJA compared with current policy. This still leaves U.S. emissions in 2040 over 2.1 billion tons short of where they need to be. Total U.S. emissions increase under BAAJA between 2033 and 2040 in the model’s high-emissions scenario.
- Proponents’ model shows BAAJA unleashes new gas infrastructure without estimating those impacts on emissions from the combustion of increased U.S. gas exports abroad.
- BAAJA drives a 50% increase in the rate of interregional gas pipeline construction and capacity by 2040 compared with current policy.
- Rhodium’s model also claims the bill will drive a 15% increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 2040. That is an additional 1.8 trillion cubic feet of LNG exported from the United States in 2040.
- Rhodium’s central model assumes a moderate level of data center buildout, while other Rhodium analyses show a higher level of data center demand would significantly increase U.S. emissions.
- As stated by Rhodium modelers, BAAJA’s provisions make it easier to build new gas pipelines that data centers may require. Environmental Integrity Project estimates that more than 10,000 miles of new gas pipelines are currently underway or proposed.
“Even BAAJA’s proponents are unable to produce modeling that shows it would meaningfully alter our climate future. Rhodium’s new analysis underscores how ill-advised it would be to sacrifice our bedrock environmental protections for the sake of this bill. Last night, Congress received a clear mandate to rein in data center construction, Big Tech, and Big Oil. They must reject BAAJA and pursue a rapid transition to clean, affordable renewable energy that doesn’t sacrifice our communities’ health and safety,” said Lorne Stockman, Research Director at Oil Change International.
“American voters just told Congress, loud and clear, that they don’t want AI data centers forced on their communities. Rushing BAAJA through now wouldn’t deliver on climate but would hand Big Tech and Trump a win, something Americans just soundly rejected at the ballot box,” said Camden Weber, senior climate and energy policy specialist at the Center for Biological Diversity. “Even the modeling its sponsors are touting shows, at best, a 2.4 percent cut in emissions, far less than the drop in U.S. emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic. This isn’t a climate bill, and Congress should listen to voters, not Big Tech.”