New analysis: Existing fossil fuel projects threaten pollution nearly 7 times the world’s remaining 1.5°C budget

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Ahead of COP31, Oil Change International warns that existing gas fields alone exceed the remaining carbon budget, as governments face mounting pressure to end fossil fuel expansion and deliver fair phaseout plans.

October 29, 2026 — Fossil fuel extraction projects already operating or under construction contain enough oil, gas, and coal to produce nearly seven times the carbon pollution the world can afford to emit to limit global warming to 1.5°C, and risk driving temperatures as high as 2°C, according to new analysis released today by Oil Change International (OCI) ahead of the COP31 United Nations climate negotiations in Antalya, Türkiye [1]. 

The findings underscore that it is urgent for governments to develop fossil fuel transition roadmaps that plan for the early phaseout of existing fields and mines, guided by equity and backed by fair finance. These are necessary to avoid every fraction of warming possible above 1.5°C, and the irreversible, widespread human suffering and ecosystem damage that overshoot of this limit will trigger.

The updated Sky’s Limit analysis finds that burning all the fossil fuels in existing oil and gas fields and coal mines would release an estimated 897 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2), compared with a remaining carbon budget of just 130 billion tonnes for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C.

In a stark warning against the global rush to expand liquefied natural gas (LNG), the analysis also finds that existing gas fields alone contain enough fossil fuel to exceed the entire remaining 1.5°C carbon budget, even without accounting for a single additional barrel of oil or tonne of coal.

The findings come as governments prepare to gather at COP31 to discuss how to turn their commitment to transition away from fossil fuels into concrete national roadmaps, following the historic Santa Marta conference. They also reinforce the urgency of the United Nations Environment Programme’s recent reports, which warn that global temperatures are on course to exceed 1.5°C at least temporarily in the coming years. 

The science is clear: every new fossil fuel project makes it harder to limit warming and increases the risk of irreversible harm. A decade after the Paris Agreement, governments and fossil fuel companies have continued to approve and invest in new extraction, pushing the world toward overshooting 1.5°C and putting millions more people at risk. But the scale of future climate devastation is not predetermined. Governments can still prevent the worst damage through policies to keep fossil fuels in the ground and accelerate a just and publicly funded transition to renewable energy. 

Kelly Trout, Research Director at Oil Change International, said:

“The massive oversupply of fossil fuels is the result of a decade of reckless decisions by governments and fossil fuel companies that kept approving and investing in new extraction despite knowing the consequences. Wealthy countries including the United States, Canada, and Australia are the worst culprits – leading the world in expanding oil and gas production since the Paris Agreement all while claiming climate leadership. They have pushed the world toward breaching the 1.5°C limit, and communities least responsible for this crisis are paying the highest price.

“But this is not the end of the story. Every fraction of a degree of warming we prevent means lives saved, communities protected, and a more livable future. Governments still have the power to change course. At COP31, they must turn promises into action: stop fossil fuel expansion and plan a fast and fair phaseout of existing production, with wealthy countries moving first and fastest and paying their fair share to support a just transition worldwide.”

Key findings

• Existing fossil fuel extraction projects threaten pollution nearly seven times the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget. Fully extracting developed oil, gas, and coal reserves would generate 897 billion tonnes of CO2, compared with a remaining budget of 130 billion tonnes from the start of 2026.
• Existing gas fields alone exceed the remaining 1.5°C budget. Developed gas reserves would generate 150 billion tonnes of CO2 if fully extracted. Even if coal extraction stopped immediately, existing oil and gas fields together contain 3.5 times the remaining carbon budget. The findings underscore the urgency of ending new LNG expansion and the reality that the world is far past the point of having room to exchange one fossil fuel for another.
• More than 85% of developed fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground to remain within the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget, up from 60% in OCI’s 2023 analysis.
• Committed emissions from oil, gas, and coal extraction now exceed by 30% the remaining carbon budget for a high probability of holding warming below 2°C. Planning for the early phaseout of existing fossil fuel extraction sites is thus critical to limit overshoot of 1.5°C and preserve the world’s chances of returning to it.

COP31 must deliver progress towards a fast, fair, full, and funded phaseout

At COP 31 and beyond, governments face a test to turn their commitment to transition away from fossil fuels into credible national roadmaps. This new analysis underscores that these plans must tackle fossil fuel production head on to credibly align with internationally agreed and legally binding climate limits.

Oil Change International is calling on governments to make concrete, timebound commitments to an equitable fossil fuel phaseout, including an immediate end to fossil fuel expansion and clear phase out dates for fossil fuel production and use that match countries’ historical responsibility and capacity. These plans must protect workers and communities, guaranteeing the rights of people affected by fossil fuel extraction, and be paired with industrial policy, planning, and public funding to grow non-fossil fuel sectors. Achieving the scale and speed of phaseout required will hinge on international cooperation. This means wealthy countries meeting their climate finance obligations and cooperating to transform debt, tax, trade, and other financial rules that constrain many Global South countries from pursuing renewable energy and development pathways free from fossil fuel dependence.

ENDS

Notes to editors

• [1] The full analysis, “The Sky’s Limit: Existing Fossil Fuel Projects Threaten Pollution Seven Times the 1.5°C Carbon Budget” is available at: https://oilchange.org/publications/carbon-budget-existing-fossil-fuels
• The analysis updates OCI’s previous peer-reviewed research on the carbon emissions committed by existing fossil fuel extraction projects, using 2026 oil and gas data from Rystad Energy and updated estimates of the remaining global carbon budget.
• The findings focus on CO2 emissions from fossil fuel extraction and combustion and do not fully account for additional warming from methane leakage.
• Past OCI analysis revealed how a handful of Global North oil and gas-producing countries derailed global progress on phasing out production in the decade since the Paris Agreement: the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Norway collectively increased their oil and gas production by nearly 40 percent between 2015 and 2024 and also account for the majority of planned oil and gas expansion through to 2035.
• OCI’s forthcoming briefing, Planning or Chaos: roadmaps for fair and funded fossil fuel phaseouts in producing countries, to be released on November 5th, will make the case for government-led roadmaps for prosperity beyond fossil fuels and outline a “just transition toolkit” of near-term policies and tools to kickstart progress.
• Kelly Trout, Research Director at Oil Change International and lead author of the original peer-reviewed study, is available for interviews ahead of COP31 and remotely during the negotiations.