New data exposes Global North countries responsible for nearly 70% of projected oil and gas expansion through 2035

• New analysis from Oil Change International shows that four Global North countries – the United States, Canada, Norway, and Australia – are collectively responsible for nearly 70% of projected new oil and gas expansion from 2025 to 2035. 
• The U.S. (58%) and Canada (9%) would be responsible for two-thirds of the carbon pollution threatened by new oil and gas fields and fracking wells through to 2035, equivalent to 19% of the remaining global carbon budget for a 1-in-2 chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C.
• Brazil, the 2025 UN climate talks host, is among the 10 largest expanders of oil and gas to 2035, with expansion plans that surpass those of Saudi Arabia.
• Absence of progress on fossil fuel phase out despite the COP28 pledge highlights the need for a COP30 outcome on equitable phase out dates, with rich countries phasing out first.

16 June – Four Global North countries, led overwhelmingly by the United States, are responsible for nearly 70% of projected new oil and gas expansion from 2025 to 2035, according to new data analysis released today by Oil Change International. The group warns that, If this oil and gas expansion is allowed to proceed, it would lock in climate chaos and an unlivable future.

This analysis is published on the first day of the UN Bonn June climate talks where climate negotiators are gathered at the halfway point between COP29 in Baku and COP30 in Belem, laying the ground for negotiations at this year’s UN climate talks. Despite continued fossil fuel expansion, fossil fuels are not on the agenda of the climate talks.

If these four countries – United States, Canada, Norway, and Australia – which Oil Change International dubs “Planet Wreckers”, halted their planned new oil and gas extraction, 32 billion tonnes (Gt) of carbon pollution would be kept in the ground. This is equivalent to three times the annual emissions of all the world’s coal power plants combined. The analysis examines projected extraction from new oil and gas fields and fracking wells by country between 2025 and 2035, and the amount of carbon pollution it would cause globally if allowed to proceed.

This expansion threat comes on top of already existing extraction projects, which, without any further expansion, would cause carbon emissions more than 3.5 times the size of the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget. 

At COP28 in 2023, all countries committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels in an equitable manner. Studies have shown that the richest countries with the highest capacity to do so should phase out fossil fuels before 2035 and mobilise climate finance to enable a just transition in Global South countries.

Brazil, the host of this year’s UN climate talks, is also actively pursuing fossil fuel expansion, ranking even higher in projected CO2 emissions from oil and gas expansion to 2035 than Saudi Arabia. Previous OCI research has shown that Brazil ranks third globally in terms of oil and gas expansion approved in the year after the COP28 decision to transition away from fossil fuels.

This policy of increased fossil fuel production, boosted by the dismantling of environmental licensing legislation in Congress, sets a detrimental example at a time when Brazil aspires to be seen as a global climate leader by hosting COP30. However, Brazil exemplifies the difficulties that emerging economies with oil and gas reserves face when trying to balance poverty eradication, industrialization, and climate goals. 

Oil Change International policy experts are urging countries to go further at COP30 than the broad commitment to transition away from fossil fuels: they must adopt differentiated phase out timelines for fossil fuel production and use, with rich countries committing to end fossil fuel extraction in the mid 2030s, and address the systemic barriers preventing developing countries from transitioning to renewable energy, including finance.

Romain Ioualalen, Global Policy lead at Oil Change International, said: 

“A handful of the world’s richest nations’ remain intent on leading us into disaster. This is not just hypocrisy. It is a death sentence for communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis. 

“It is sickening that countries with the highest incomes and outsized historical responsibility for causing the climate crisis are planning massive oil and gas expansion with no regard for the lives and livelihoods at stake.

“At COP28, all countries committed to transition away from fossil fuels in an equitable manner, but this commitment is largely being ignored by some of the world’s richest countries. Equity is not a buzzword. It is a foundational requirement to accelerate the transition. Until the richest countries commit to ending fossil fuel production and use and deliver adequate climate finance on fair terms, global calls for fossil fuel phaseout will ring hollow to developing countries that are struggling to meet development, energy access, and climate resilience needs. 

“Countries have an opportunity to course correct by working together. COP30 must deliver a collective roadmap for equitable phase out dates for fossil fuel production and use, to actually deliver on commitments all countries made at COP28.”

###