New Data Shows Just Four Global North Countries Responsible for Derailing Oil and Gas Phase-out Progress since Paris Agreement

• Since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, just four Global North countries – the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Norway – derailed potential for global progress in phasing out oil and gas by collectively increasing their oil and gas production by nearly 40 percent between 2015 and 2024. In the rest of the world, combined oil and gas extraction dropped by 2 percent over this same period.
• Global North countries as a whole paid only $280 billion in climate finance to the rest of the world since the Paris Agreement, a fraction of the needs-based estimates, while enabling oil and gas companies they headquarter to rake in close to 5 times that amount in profits (over $1.3 trillion). 

29 October 2025, Paris – Just four Global North countries, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Norway, are overwhelmingly responsible for blocking global progress on phasing out oil and gas production, according to new analysis from Oil Change International titled Planet Wreckers: Global North Countries Fueling the Fire Since the Paris Agreement. 

While the rest of the world reduced oil and gas production between 2015 and 2024, massive expansion in these “Planet Wrecker” countries caused total global output to rise since the Paris Agreement. On top of this, all Global North countries as a whole have failed to pay the climate finance they owe, slowing climate action in the rest of the world while protecting the profits of key drivers of the climate crisis: polluters and the super-rich.

Between 2015 and 2024, the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Norway, collectively increased their oil and gas production by nearly 40 percent, adding over 14 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). In the same period, extraction in the rest of the world fell by 2 percent, cumulatively.

This contrast is striking and critically important as nations prepare to converge at COP30 to negotiate the next phase of the global climate agenda.

The U.S. alone accounts for over 90 percent of the net global increase in extraction through 2024, driving up its production by nearly 11 million boe/d – more than five times as much as any other country. 

Time is running out. If fossil fuel-driven carbon pollution continues at today’s pace, the world will burn through its remaining carbon budget in just three years. The science is clear: keeping the 1.5°C limit in reach requires ending fossil fuel expansion and rapidly phasing out oil, gas, and coal production and use. The legal case for this has also been recently bolstered by international courts, including the International Court of Justice.

Unsurprisingly, the four countries with an outsized responsibility for driving up oil and gas since the Paris Agreement are also collectively planning to expand the most over the next decade. Previous Oil Change International analysis also warns that these four Global North producers are the same “Planet Wrecker” countries driving the majority of the world’s planned oil and gas expansion through to 2035, in terms of production dependent on new fields and fracking wells. 

Just as predictably, all Global North governments as a whole have shirked paying the finance they owe to enable climate action in the Global South, instead pursuing policy agendas that further entrench the power and profits of fossil fuel companies and the super-rich. Since the Paris Agreement, Global North governments have provided just $280 billion in climate finance on grant-equivalent terms, a fraction of the $1 to $5 trillion annual need. Meanwhile, they have enabled the oil and gas companies headquartered in their countries to make at least $1.3 trillion in profits – around 5 times as much as Global North countries paid in climate finance.

Romain Ioualalen, Global Policy lead at Oil Change International, said: 

“Ten years ago in Paris, countries promised to limit warming to 1.5°C, which is impossible without putting an end to fossil fuel expansion and production. The rich countries most responsible for the climate crisis have not kept that promise. Instead, they’ve poured more fuel on the fire and withheld the funds needed to put it out. 

“The fact that a handful of rich Global North countries, led by the United States, have massively driven up their oil and gas production while people around the world suffer the consequences is a blatant mockery of justice and equity. These countries have a moral and legal obligation to move first to phase out fossil fuels, and deliver the trillions needed in climate finance on fair terms to the Global South. Anything less is a betrayal of science and abdication of responsibility.

“But all is not lost. More and more countries are pushing to end the era of fossil fuels, as demonstrated by the first global conference on fossil fuel phase-out that the government of Colombia will convene in 2026. The first step will be for governments meeting at COP30 in Belém to deliver a collective roadmap for equitable, differentiated fossil fuel phase-out dates, and address the systemic barriers preventing Global South countries from transitioning to renewable energy, including finance.”

***

Note to Editors:

• The production analysis focuses on the outsized role of the four largest Global North oil and gas producing countries due to their historical and legal responsibility and economic capacity to lead in phasing out production. The aggregate 2% drop in production in the rest of the world outside of these four “Planet Wreckers” accounts for shifts upward and downward across all other countries. Individually, the U.S., Canada, and Australia rank first, third, and fifth among all countries for the largest production increases by volume from 2015 to 2024.
• To try to get off the hook for their finance obligations, Global North countries are pushing unrealistic proposals to instead rely almost exclusively on private investors. Yet, there is no shortage of public funds available to finance an equitable fossil fuel phase-out. Global North governments could mobilise $6.6 trillion per year through redistributive policies to address climate, social, and economic crises together – by making polluters pay, cancelling Global South debts, taxing extreme wealth, and cutting military budgets. With broader reforms to the global financial system, that total could rise to $11 trillion annually, enough to fund a just and rapid fossil fuel phase-out worldwide.
• While key oil and gas producing countries continue to block progress towards a fast, fair, and funded fossil fuel phase-out, some countries are showing leadership to create positive building blocks towards international cooperation. While some are in early stages and/or have mixed levels of success, these efforts include:
  • Colombia recently announced it will host the First International Conference for the Phase-Out of Fossil Fuels in April 2026 on behalf of the 17 states that have joined discussions to develop a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Treaty initiative complements the Beyond Oil & Gas Alliance (BOGA), launched in 2021 to build cooperation between countries committing to end new oil and gas exploration and phase out their production on a Paris-aligned timeline.
  • The Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) and Coalition on Phasing-out Fossil Fuel Incentives and Subsidies (COFFIS) commit members to ending international public finance and domestic subsidies for fossil fuels, respectively. The forty CETP signatories have succeeded in collectively reducing their international public fossil fuel finance by up to 78% in 2024, compared to pre-commitment levels. However, progress lags on redirecting this public finance and further scaling up support for just energy transition solutions.
  • Global South country-led efforts are building momentum behind UN Conventions on Tax and Sovereign Debt, which are critical for overhauling outdated financial rules that create systemic barriers to a fossil fuel phase-out.