New Research: US LNG is Projected to Become More Expensive for the EU
For immediate release
For European customers, LNG from the United States is already the most expensive, and new research shows it is projected to become even more expensive.
Paris, France – For European customers, LNG from the United States is already the most expensive, and new research from Oil Change International shows it is projected to become even more expensive. As one in four European Union households and many businesses struggle with energy poverty, the EU is becoming increasingly reliant on U.S. liquefied gas (LNG), even as prices rise. Two-thirds of the EU’s gas supply now comes from the U.S.
Oil Change International analysts warn that the wholesale price of U.S. gas will rise steadily over the next decade. Between 2026 and 2040, the average wholesale price of gas could be 80% higher than during the past decade of U.S. LNG exports. As the price of U.S. LNG for Europe is tied to the wholesale price, the cost of U.S. LNG for European customers is expected to dramatically rise.
In July 2025, the EU and the United States signed an agreement for the EU to purchase USD 750 billion worth of U.S. LNG, oil, and nuclear energy products through 2028. Although this is widely seen as unrealistic, an increase in European LNG demand could coincide with rapid growth in domestic U.S. gas demand, driving up prices. The Trump administration’s artificial intelligence (AI) agenda has triggered a massive wave of data center construction, much of which is slated to be powered with gas. U.S. gas demand for power generation is estimated to increase 50% in the coming decade.=
Europe’s Energy Affordability Crisis
The EU’s dependence on fossil fuels from any source exposes the region to volatile, rising prices. Just this year, EU fossil gas prices doubled from January to June. The additional cost of importing fossil fuels since the United States attacked Iran is at least EUR 47 billion. In recent years, EU member governments have spent over EUR 540 billion in emergency measures to shield consumers and businesses from high costs of energy inflation, primarily linked to rising gas prices.
Break Free From Gas To Make Energy More Affordable
The EU aims to reduce fossil gas demand 18% between 2025 and 2030. Achieving existing heat pump, solar, and wind installation targets could cut EU gas demand by 25% by 2030. Deploying renewable energy and energy efficiency measures under the EU Electrification Action Plan could reduce fossil fuel import bills by EUR 260 billion per year by 2040. EU decision-makers must deliver on gas demand-reduction measures, support the most vulnerable, and phase out fossil fuels by increasing electrification, renewable energy, and energy efficiency.
Myriam Douo, Senior Campaigner, Oil Change International, said:
“Depending on LNG imports is a dead end road to high energy prices. Instead, by phasing out fossil fuels like LNG, Europe can secure reliable, renewable, and affordable energy supplies that put money back in our pockets instead of big fossil fuel companies.”
Note to the editors:
Pay, Baby, Pay: Trump’s AI and energy dominance agenda means costlier LNG for Europe is a regional analysis following Oil Change International’s Pay, Baby, Pay Why Trump’s Energy & AI Dominance Agenda Means Higher Bills For Everyone report.
For regional Asia analysis please review Asia’s gas gamble: Trump’s AI and energy dominance agenda means costlier LNG
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