“Pay, Baby, Pay”: New Report Finds that Trump’s Energy & AI Dominance Agendas Drive Energy Affordability Crisis

Our new research shows that the Trump administration, the fossil fuel industry, and Big Tech are creating a perfect storm for rising energy prices as nearly 80 million people in the U.S. struggle to pay their electric bills. The administration has thrown its weight behind a massive expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and AI data centers that largely run on fossil gas. Alongside Trump’s attacks on affordable renewable energy, these policies are likely to drive demand for fossil gas to unprecedented heights, raising energy bills for families in the U.S. and the countries that import U.S. LNG. 

The wholesale price of U.S. fossil gas is likely to double by the late 2030s, relative to the 2020 to 2025 average, if Trump’s AI and LNG policies succeed in pushing gas demand to levels that can only be met by more expensive gas production. New production in the Appalachian and Permian Basins can meet a portion of rising demand for fossil gas, but these relatively low-cost basins cannot produce enough gas to meet the surge in demand created by Trump’s policies. 

One region in particular, called the Haynesville shale play, is expected to fill the gap. Production in the Haynesville shale play in western Louisiana and eastern Texas is expected to soar by over 130%. However, because it’s more expensive to drill in the Haynesville, where gas is harder to access, this aggressive production growth would require prices to rise. 

Over the past decade, the annual average wholesale gas price (Henry Hub) was $3.18 per Million British Thermal Units (MMBTU). But analysts estimate that for gas supply from the Haynesville to grow to meet surging demand, prices will have to rise above $5. Several analysts, as well as the U.S. Energy Information Administration, project that Henry Hub prices will reach annual averages of $7 by the late 2030s.

Decisionmakers in the U.S. and across the world can protect families from out-of-control energy costs by stopping the buildout of expensive gas projects, and investing in clean, affordable renewable energy instead. Transitioning to a just renewable energy system is also critical to creating good green jobs, reducing toxic fossil fuel pollution, and safeguarding communities from deadly climate disasters. 

“Trump’s policies are making everyone’s lives more expensive while Big Tech and the fossil fuel industry cash in. Our research shows that the cost-of-living crisis will only escalate in the coming years if Congress and government agencies don’t intervene. Our leaders must stand up to Trump, phase out LNG exports, stop the reckless data center buildout, and transition the U.S. economy off of fossil fuels to make energy affordable again.”– Lorne Stockman, Research Director, Oil Change International