COP31 Must Deliver a Full, Fair, Funded Fossil Fuel Phaseout to Protect People and Build Energy Security

As world leaders gather in Türkiye, Oil Change International calls for concrete phaseout roadmaps, public finance, and international cooperation to deliver affordable energy, good jobs, and a safer future.

November 5, 2026 — As governments prepare to gather for the COP31 United Nations climate negotiations in Antalya, Türkiye, Oil Change International (OCI) calls on world leaders to turn their commitment to transition away from fossil fuels into concrete, publicly funded, government-led plans that protect people from worsening climate disasters, rising energy and food costs, and geopolitical instability.

COP31 comes at the end of the most seismic year for energy shocks, and amid wars, worsening climate disasters, and an escalating cost-of-living crisis. Fossil fuel dependence drives countries’ exposure to volatile prices, supply disruptions, and conflict, while communities living near fossil fuel extraction and infrastructure suffer from pollution, displacement, and threats to their health and livelihoods. As ordinary families struggle with rising bills, fossil fuel companies continue to profit from a system that puts people and the planet at risk.

Governments face a choice: continue deepening dependence on fossil fuels and leave people and economies exposed to recurring and escalating crises, or implement a fast, fair, full, and funded phaseout that delivers affordable renewable energy, good jobs, energy sovereignty, and shared prosperity.

What to Expect at COP31

Three years after governments agreed at COP28 to a fair and managed transition away from fossil fuels, COP31 offers an opportunity to turn that commitment into action. Governments must move beyond promises and develop credible national roadmaps with concrete, timebound policies to end fossil fuel expansion, phase out existing production and use, protect workers and communities, and build resilient economies beyond fossil fuels.

These roadmaps must be backed by public planning and investment. Leaving the transition to markets will not deliver the speed, scale, or fairness needed, particularly for Global South countries facing mounting debt, high borrowing costs, and unfair international financial rules.

Wealthy countries must move first and fastest, meet their climate finance obligations, and cooperate to remove the barriers preventing Global South countries from building renewable energy economies. A fair transition must also protect communities harmed by fossil fuel extraction and infrastructure and ensure that workers and frontline communities have a meaningful role in shaping their futures.

COP31 will also see discussions on accelerating electrification. Electrification powered by renewable energy can lower pollution, reduce exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices, and expand energy access. But any new commitment must accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, and be explicitly powered by renewable energy, not provide cover for further gas expansion, and must be backed by public finance and policies that protect communities.

Key COP31 Moments & New Research

• Recent OCI research and data: Our latest Sky’s Limit analysis finds that existing fossil fuel projects threaten nearly seven times the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget, while Behind the Barrel exposes oil supply chains fueling Israel’s military operations. Our gas affordability analysis finds that wholesale gas prices are projected to average 80% higher between 2026 and 2040 than in the previous decade, with expanding U.S. LNG exports and surging data center demand adding pressure on prices. New polling shows major public support for transitioning away from fossil fuels, while our research on the Clean Energy Transition Partnership and G20 and multilateral development banks documents progress in shifting international public finance away from fossil fuels, alongside major gaps. Our Africa finance analysis shows how changing unfair financial rules could unlock $367 billion annually to support a publicly led renewable energy future.
• New briefing on fossil fuel phaseout roadmaps: OCI’s Planning or Chaos: Roadmaps for Fair and Funded Fossil Fuel Phaseouts in Producing Countries will be published on November 10. The new analysis outlines how fossil fuel producing countries are far from immune to the disruptions driven by the inherent volatility of a global economy still running on fossil fuels, and makes the case for these countries to develop government-led roadmaps to plan for a world of declining demand for their products.
• COP31 political developments: OCI will respond to national roadmap announcements, new public finance commitments, electrification proposals, and initiatives that advance or undermine a fair fossil fuel phaseout.

We’ll Be Paying Close Attention To:

• Fossil fuel phaseout: Credible, equitable, and timebound national roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels, end expansion, and support a just transition for workers and communities.
• Climate finance: Wealthy countries delivering grant-based public finance, ending fossil fuel subsidies and public finance for fossil fuels, making polluters pay, and reforming unfair global financial rules.
• Electrification and renewable energy: Commitments that expand renewable energy access, reduce fossil fuel dependence, and protect communities, rather than driving new gas expansion.
• Fossil fuel industry accountability: Efforts to challenge LNG expansion, fossil fuel industry influence, war profiteering, and false solutions like carbon capture and offsets – including ongoing efforts to kick fossil fuel lobbyists out of the climate negotiations.
• Global leadership: Governments advancing a fair, publicly funded transition and international cooperation despite Trump’s fossil fuel expansion agenda.

Statement

Shady Khalil, Global Policy Senior Strategist at Oil Change International, said:

“Fossil fuel dependence costs people their lives, livelihoods, and economic security. Families pay higher bills, communities are suffering from pollution and climate disasters, and countries are dragged into the next crisis every time oil and gas prices spike. Meanwhile, fossil fuel companies continue to reap massive profits, with the seven Oil Majors reporting over USD 60 billion in profits in the last quarter alone.

“At COP31, governments have a choice. They can continue leaving people at the mercy of volatile fossil fuel markets and powerful interests that exploit crises for profit and political gain, or they can take control of their energy future. A fast, fair, and funded phaseout of fossil fuels is how countries can build more secure economies, protect people from energy price shocks, create good jobs, and build a safer future.

“We already know what needs to happen. Governments must stop fossil fuel expansion, plan a fair phaseout of existing production, and invest public money in renewable energy and economic diversification. Wealthy countries must move first and fastest and provide the finance needed to make this transition possible everywhere.”

Media Interviews & Availability

Oil Change International spokespeople are available for interviews ahead of COP31, on-site in Antalya, and remotely throughout the negotiations, November 9–20, 2026.

OCI experts are available to speak about fossil fuel phaseout roadmaps, international climate finance, renewable energy and electrification, fossil fuel industry accountability, U.S. fossil fuel expansion, and the connections between fossil fuel dependence, affordability, security, and conflict.

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