Japan backs Trump’s LNG Boom as Asia Faces Higher Energy Bills, Analysis Warns

Japan is backing U.S. gas expansion that could leave households and businesses across Asia paying more for energy over the next decade, according to new analysis from Oil Change International. The data builds on Oil Change International’s Pay, Baby, Pay report, which finds
that Trump’s energy and AI agenda could sharply raise U.S. gas prices.

Japan is accelerating Asia’s exposure to expensive energy sources by financing new fossil-fuel deals across the region, investing directly in the U.S. gas supply chain, and pledging billions of dollars to U.S. energy projects, even as gas gets more expensive to produce.

Japan bowed to Trump’s tariff threats by pledging $550 billion in U.S. investment, with more than $68 billion recently committed to oil and gas projects. That share builds out U.S. supply while Asia’s clean energy potential remains underfunded. Japan’s government has a choice to make: keep bankrolling Trump’s fossil fuel agenda or help its neighbors increase energy security and cut dependence on imported gas.

Asia can avoid a costlier energy future by speeding up the shift to renewables, and Japan has a role in making that happen fast. This requires ending finance for fossil fuel expansion and shifting support to clean energy.

The analysis finds: 

The price of U.S. gas could increase. U.S. LNG exports could double by the early 2030s, driven by Trump’s energy dominance and artificial intelligence agendas, which have triggered a wave of LNG facility and data center construction. Meeting demand from exports and data centers would require more expensive drilling, including in the Haynesville basin in Texas and Louisiana prices for importing countries. This is projected to push US wholesale gas prices up 80% between 2026 and 2040, compared to the past decade of US LNG exports. As LNG contracts tied to the US gas benchmark (Henry Hub) are set to dominate the market in the 2030s, there is concern that Asian LNG prices may be influenced more by US market dynamics than by regional dynamics.

Japan is deepening Asia’s exposure to imported fossil fuels. The recent energy crisis triggered by the U.S. war on Iran revealed Asia as the most vulnerable region to this price hike, exposing the region’s dependence on imported fossil fuels. Rather than remedying that exposure, Japan is worsening the consequences by announcing POWERR Asia, a $10 billion framework to help other Asian countries procure oil and gas, and backing pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Lorne Stockman, Research Director, Oil Change International: “Japan is digging itself deeper into a fossil fuel dependence hole. The U.S. is also doubling down, even as all the evidence suggests it will increase energy costs and accelerate the climate crisis for everyone. Japan must recognize that energy security and climate security are inexorably linked, and the solutions are the same: phase out fossil fuels and advance electrification, renewable energy, and efficiency.”

NOTE TO THE EDITOR: 

• Asia’s gas gamble: Trump’s AI and energy dominance agenda means costlier LNG is a regional analysis following Oil Change International’s Pay, Baby, Pay Why Trump’s Energy & AI Dominance Agenda Means Higher Bills For Everyone report.
• Read the European regional analysis here.
• Read the Japanese translation of the press release here.